Liverpool’s chances of lifting the Premier League trophy have received a significant boost following their 2–1 victory over Wolves.

According to Opta Analyst, Liverpool’s probability of winning the 2025/26 Premier League title currently stands at just 0.6%. That low figure remains in place despite the Reds putting together a three-match winning run in the league, capped by a 2–1 victory over Wolves at the weekend.

If Arne Slot’s side were to overcome Leeds on Thursday, the gap between the reigning champions and Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal would grow to 10 points.

Arsenal and Manchester City lead the title race

It comes as little shock that Arsenal and Manchester City are viewed as the strongest contenders. Arsenal have been given a 73.2% chance of lifting the trophy, while Pep Guardiola’s revitalised City sit second at 22.4%. Opta Analyst shared these updated projections on X after the latest round of Premier League fixtures.

With a 13-point gap separating first place from fourth, Liverpool still have significant ground to make up before they can realistically be labelled true title contenders.

Set-piece issues remain a major concern

To Slot’s credit, his adjustments have helped stabilise things at Anfield. Liverpool halted a run of three straight defeats and have now collected four wins from their last six league matches, a notable improvement after a difficult spell earlier in the season.

That said, problems at set pieces continue to undermine their progress. The Reds are struggling to threaten opponents from dead-ball situations and, more worryingly, are repeatedly exposed when defending them.

Santiago Bueno’s goal for Wolves—scored after Alisson Becker could only parry a corner—highlighted the issue again. Liverpool’s set-piece differential for the season now stands at -9.

Unless this weakness is addressed quickly, strong defensive displays and effective work against deep-lying opponents may count for little over the course of a long title race if Liverpool remain vulnerable from set pieces.