Opta Supercomputer gives Liverpool just a 27% chance of beating Manchester City

Liverpool’s upcoming trip to Manchester City is shaping up to be one of the Premier League’s biggest early-season fixtures — and according to the data, the Reds will have to beat the odds to win.

Opta prediction favours City, but Salah eyes a milestone

Opta’s supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations ahead of the clash, making Manchester City favourites with a 45.4% chance of victory. Liverpool’s chances sit at 27.7%, while a draw stands at 26.9%.

The tight percentages reflect just how close these two sides are at the top, separated by a single point — City on 19 and Liverpool on 18.

Key individual battles could decide the game. Erling Haaland is just two goals away from reaching 100 Premier League goals, while Mohamed Salah is one goal or assist short of surpassing Wayne Rooney’s record for most goal involvements at a single club.

Salah also loves facing City — he’s contributed directly to 15 goals (nine goals and six assists) against Guardiola’s men, underlining his consistent impact in this fixture.

Liverpool could also be boosted by the return of Alexander Isak, with the forward back in full training after three weeks out. However, the manager has cautioned fans not to expect him to be “at his best immediately.”

Reds rediscovering their rhythm

Liverpool’s 1–0 midweek win over Real Madrid showcased their ability to control big games. According to Opta, they created 2.58 expected goals to Madrid’s 0.45, showing the dominance that will be needed again at the Etihad.

In defence, Virgil van Dijk has restored stability, limiting Madrid to just eight shots, while Andy Robertson’s strong form gives the team balance on the left.

Creative spark Florian Wirtz is also emerging as a key figure, having created five chances in one half against Madrid — the most by a Liverpool player in a single half since January.

So while the numbers may lean towards City, Liverpool have proved before that they can defy the odds. With Salah chasing history, Isak returning, and Slot’s side regaining confidence, the most important statistic this weekend will be the one on the scoreboard at full-time.