Ranking Every Premier League Manager by Their Sack Probability

A new Premier League season always brings anticipation — and uncertainty. While some clubs appear settled after surpassing expectations last term, others are already feeling the pressure. In a league where patience is rare and results are everything, not every manager will make it to May.

Ruben Amorim is learning that lesson fast. His first nine months at Manchester United have been turbulent, with mixed results and intense scrutiny. On the other hand, Arne Slot’s spectacular debut season at Liverpool, crowned with a Premier League title, has reinforced his standing among the elite — though even champions aren’t immune to a slump.

This ranking explores which Premier League bosses are safe, and who might be walking a tightrope. Using factors like league position, form, fan sentiment, and club expectations, we’ve assessed every manager’s job security for the current campaign.

Ranking Criteria

League performance and form

Cup and European results

Club expectations

Boardroom and fan sentiment

Manager’s track record and influence

(Nottingham Forest are excluded after sacking Ange Postecoglou just 39 days into his reign. Sean Dyche is expected to take charge.)

Mikel Arteta — Arsenal

Last season: 2nd

Mikel Arteta continues to build a strong, disciplined Arsenal side. Injuries to key men like Saka and Havertz disrupted their rhythm, but the Gunners remain among the league’s best. After another title push and a Champions League semi-final run, Arteta’s position is rock solid.

Pep Guardiola — Manchester City

Last season: 3rd

City’s first season without the title in four years hasn’t shaken faith in Pep Guardiola. He’s extended his deal until 2027 and remains central to the club’s vision. New signings such as Tijani Reijnders and Rayan Cherki have refreshed his squad, keeping City competitive.

Andoni Iraola — Bournemouth

Last season: 9th

Many doubted Andoni Iraola when he replaced Gary O’Neil, but he’s transformed Bournemouth into a fearless, high-energy team. Wins over Arsenal and Manchester United last season cemented his reputation — he’s now one of the league’s most promising managers.

Oliver Glasner — Crystal Palace

Last season: 10th

Oliver Glasner gave Palace fans their dream moment by winning the FA Cup, the club’s first major trophy. His unbeaten run of 19 games and organized style have made Palace one of the most admired sides outside the top six.

Arne Slot — Liverpool

Last season: 1st

Arne Slot’s debut season at Liverpool ended in glory, but a recent four-game losing streak has raised eyebrows. With new signings like Isak and Wirtz adjusting, Slot must steady the ship — yet his position remains secure thanks to his early success and calm leadership.

Régis Le Bris — Sunderland

Last season: Promoted

Sunderland’s decision to hire Régis Le Bris has paid off handsomely. The Frenchman has quickly adapted to the Premier League, guiding the club to an impressive start. His bold move to appoint Granit Xhaka as captain has also earned him credit with fans and players alike.

David Moyes — Everton

Last season: 13th

Returning to Everton, David Moyes has brought experience and steadiness. With financial backing and strong signings like Jack Grealish, the Toffees are improving, and their win over Crystal Palace shows real progress. Moyes has the board’s full support — for now.

Thomas Frank — Tottenham Hotspur

Last season: 17th

Thomas Frank’s switch from Brentford to Spurs has been a refreshing change. His energetic approach and tactical flexibility have reignited Tottenham, with fans already warming to his leadership. Early results have shown promise.

Enzo Maresca — Chelsea

Last season: 4th

At a club known for impatience, Enzo Maresca has earned valuable breathing space. Winning both the Conference League and Club World Cup gave him credibility, though disagreements over transfers could still cause tension — and Chelsea’s owners don’t wait long when results dip.

Eddie Howe — Newcastle United

Last season: 5th

Eddie Howe ended Newcastle’s decades-long trophy drought and has them playing European football again. The owners’ faith in his vision remains strong, and the team’s progress on and off the pitch keeps his position safe.

Fabian Hürzeler — Brighton

Last season: 8th

Brighton’s bold move to appoint Fabian Hürzeler has worked wonders. Despite a heavy loss to Nottingham Forest early on, his side recovered impressively, showing resilience and attacking flair. His growing reputation makes him one of the league’s rising managerial stars.

Unai Emery — Aston Villa

Last season: 6th

Unai Emery continues to prove his class, guiding Villa into European contention again. Early struggles and financial restrictions aside, his experience and tactical discipline have steadied the club. Emery remains a trusted figure at Villa Park.

Nuno Espírito Santo — West Ham

Last season: 14th

After Graham Potter’s short spell, Nuno Espírito Santo took over and brought renewed energy. Performances have improved, but inconsistency still haunts the Hammers. Given the club’s track record, he’ll need sustained results to feel truly secure.

Marco Silva — Fulham

Last season: 13th

Despite constant player turnover, Marco Silva keeps Fulham competitive. His tactical adaptability and strong rapport with fans give him stability, though contract uncertainty could spark speculation about his future later in the season.

Ruben Amorim — Manchester United

Last season: 8th

Ruben Amorim’s tenure has been rocky, marked by uneven performances and fan frustration. Despite that, the INEOS ownership continues to back him, investing in key additions like Bryan Mbeumo and Benjamin Šeško. A recent win at Anfield eased tension, but expectations remain sky-high — and patience thin.

Keith Andrews — Brentford

Last season: 10th

Promoted from assistant to head coach, Keith Andrews has stepped into big shoes following the departure of Bryan Mbeumo. Early signs are promising, though his inexperience means scrutiny will intensify if results dip.

Daniel Farke — Leeds United

Last season: Promoted

Daniel Farke guided Leeds back to the Premier League but still faces doubts about his ability to keep them there. Having been relegated twice with Norwich, he’ll need to prove he’s learned from past mistakes to silence the critics.

Scott Parker — Burnley

Last season: Promoted

Scott Parker has made Burnley more resilient defensively, but survival will be a struggle. The loss of James Trafford was a huge blow, yet recent results — including a win over Leeds and a draw with Liverpool — offer a glimmer of hope.

Vítor Pereira — Wolverhampton Wanderers

Last season: 16th

Vítor Pereira pulled Wolves clear of relegation last season, but a poor start this year has placed him under severe pressure. With key departures weakening the squad and results collapsing, he’s currently the manager most at risk of losing his job.